Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
