Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
