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China has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.